Predicting the Future

Practical Television, Visions of the Future, Televisions DIY Futuristic Magazine, UK, 1950 Art PrintPredicting the future is challenging.

I remember reading Nicholas Negroponte’s book Being Digital many years ago, and it’s been amazing to see so many of his predictions come to pass. In particular, I remember reading about his “trading places” idea, or what become known as the “Negroponte Switch”. It’s basically the idea that we used to have static devices that don’t move, like televisions, getting their signal delivered wirelessly through the air, while other devices that should be mobile, like telephones, required the use of cables in order to connect.

The “Switch”, predicted by Negroponte back in the 1980s, would be that telephones would one day get their signal wirelessly and televisions would get theirs via cables.  It took about 20 years for that to happen, but happen it certainly did.  Looking back now, if you understood the technologies that brought the changes, the signs were probably there and it made sense but it took someone like Negroponte to recognise it.

Thinking about that reminded me of another article I read sometime around the year 2000 where Jeff Hawkins, the founder of Palm Computing, predicted that one day more people would access the Internet using a phone or other handheld device than would access it using a regular personal computer.  In the late 90s, when I read that statement, I must admit I had a hard time imagining how you would get a legitimately decent Internet experience on a tiny underpowered handheld device with a small screen and a ridiculously slow connection. At the time, I owned a Palm III handheld device and even had a modem for it that I could plug-in to “dial in” to the Internet. Even though I felt I was pretty au-fait with technology and I thought I understood the principle of Moore’s Law, based on what I could do at the time it was still a struggle to envision a world where the main way to get access to the Internet was via a handheld device.

Of course, it’s easy to envision that now. Those technologies moved quickly and we had breakthrough devices like the iPhone that helped redefine the entire mobile experience. Depending on what report you read, we are pretty much at that point now where more people in the world are accessing the web on a handheld device of some sort than via a PC.  What once seemed far-fetched now seems obvious.

In this newspaper report from the New York PC Expo in 2000, Jeff Hawkins points out that Palm devices will soon be able to browse the web at speeds  of 8 to 9 kbps. Yes, kbps!  A recent article on mobile broadband speed in Australia says that some Aussie telcos are getting around 34Mbps over 4G wireless networks.  It took 14 years, but that’s nearly 4000 times faster.  And you can bet that speed will just get better and better.

The challenge with predicting the future is that we are generally far too conservative about it. Most of us find it difficult to make wild predictions because we still can’t quite picture how dramatic the changes will actually be. Basically, for most of us, even our wildest dreams are not really all that wild. When we do make bold predictions, most of us still underestimate the impact of those changes over time. And of course it only takes one unanticipated breakthrough technology to come along and change all the rules again.

If you could predict the future, aside from flying cars and robot brides, what does it look like for you? What are the big, huge, fundamental shifts that will shape the way we live in 20 years from now?

Image credit: Practical Television, Visions of the Future, Televisions DIY Futuristic Magazine, UK, 1950 Art Print

An Open Letter to Teachers Mutual Bank

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The following is a letter I wrote a couple of months ago to John Kouimanos, the head of Teachers Mutual Bank, just prior to the last AGM. My annoyance ( to put it mildly) is explained in the letter. To their credit, I did receive a communication back from the Bank about the letter, and I was going to leave it at that.

But today I found out that this nonsense is still endemic to the way TMB thinks… They are making a promo video and have asked for members to take part in it… except any members that don’t teach in the public system of course.  That really pissed me off, so I decided to publish the letter here on my blog.  I’d be interested in your thoughts in the comments.

Dear John,

I’m writing to express my profound disappointment at Teachers Mutual Bank’s continuing lack of will to create a fair and equitable entry point for ALL teachers to become members. I raised this concern two years ago at the Annual General Meeting, although I understand that many other members have expressed similar concerns over it in the past.

I joined the Teachers Credit Union in 1985 in my very first year of teaching. Since that time I have continually banked with the organisation, taken out several personal loans including a current car and home loan, and I use the bank’s insurance and travel services. I deposit my pay into the bank each fortnight, and I have introduced both of my young adult children to TMB for their personal banking needs. I trust that you would see me as a loyal, long term customer.

Despite all this I remain perplexed and disappointed by the Common Bond rules governing the conditions under which Teachers Mutual Bank accepts new members, specifically in the way that teachers in the catholic and independent sectors are not openly welcomed as members in their own right.

The Common Bond rules of membership specifically require any person who wishes to join the bank based on their professional life as a teacher to be employed only in an Australian government school or teaching service. Furthermore it requires those teachers to be members of an education union. (Appendix 2 Common Bond, A2-1:1a) Of course there are other ways of becoming a member, including being employed by a related organisation, being a clerical assistant or teacher’s aide, being the spouse, child, parent, etc of an existing member or even someone who works for TMB.

However, nowhere in that collection of entry points to membership is a teacher employed by a catholic or independent school mentioned. It seems that a clerical assistant in a government school, the child of a member, or a student teacher still at university are all more openly welcomed into Teachers Mutual Bank than a teacher in a non-government school.

I would like an explanation as to why this is the case.

Telling me that there are other ways that a non-government school teacher could join TMB is an unsatisfactory response. Most of these other ways are little more than “workarounds” for a non-government teacher to become a member, based on whether they happen to be related to someone who is already a member, or some other equally tenuous link.

As a non-unionised teacher who currently works in the independent sector of Australian education, I’m disappointed (and more than a bit annoyed) that if I were to try to join the Teachers Mutual Bank today in my capacity as a teacher with over 25 years of in-school experience, I would be refused. Sure, I could try to find some other “backdoor” way to join, such as being the spouse of an existing member, having a particular brand of health insurance, or some other bizarre criteria that in no way relates to the fact that I AM A TEACHER. The core issue remains that because I work in a non-government school I would be refused membership on my own merits as an Australian educator. This is not 1966 any more, and this anachronistic favouring of unionised, state school teachers at the expense of other sectors needs to change.

I am saddened by the TMB management’s unwillingness to address this inequity and propose an amendment to the constitution that would allow the question to be voted upon. (I do realise that this has been voted for in the past and narrowly defeated, but the fact that it does not get raised at every AGM until it changes is unsatisfactory to me. Please understand that my concerns on this issue are not for my own personal circumstances. I’m already a member, so this issue down not affect me directly. It is the principle that matters here. My concerns are based on fairness, equity and a desire to see Teachers Mutual Bank rise to its own philosophical high ground of being an organisation that aims to “give teachers and their families better options”. Apparently, only certain kinds of teachers. If, as the values statement on your website claims, your organisation is truly “100% committed to doing what is right” then addressing this inequity should be a priority.

I am not the only person who feels this way. I’ve heard many other members express the same thoughts. The fact that this issue keeps coming to the surface, yet the management of TMB does not make a genuine effort to address it is, frankly, unsatisfactory. When I read the statement in the recent AGM invitation that “a major strategic initiative of the Board and management over the coming years is to grow our membership” I was dumbfounded as to why you would not attempt to take aim at a rule that currently excludes a significant number of Australia’s teaching population from joining on their own merit as teachers.

Knowing that your constitution does not recognise my status as a teacher in an independent school makes me feel that perhaps Teachers Mutual Bank is not deserving of my continuing business. If I am not good enough to be accepted as a member based on my status as a teacher, regardless of the sector that I happen to work for, then perhaps I ought not be good enough to remain as a customer, with savings accounts, credit cards, insurance, a car loan and a home loan. If the bank would not allow me to join today as a member in my own right, then please explain why should I continue to give my banking business to you?

If you and your management team believe that solid principles are at the core of how TMB operates, then the inescapable conclusion is that the Common Bond needs to be changed.

The current proposals for Agenda items 7 and 8 at the upcoming AGM do not in any way address these concerns and are merely dancing around the real issue. Despite the suggestions to the contrary from your customer service representative in a recent phone call, increasing the ceiling on the affinity rule (A2-1:3) does not solve the problem. Increasing the number of people who have an “affinity with the company” (“the company” being TMB) from a fixed 5000 to a more general 20% of membership does nothing to address the bias against non-government school teachers.

One more thing… In the current competitive Australian banking environment, Teachers Mutual Bank needs to realise it has one very specific and unique value proposition – it claims to be a bank run by teachers, for teachers. Excluding some of those teachers because of the sector they happen to work in is wrong on every level. But I’d also point out that given the independent sector is growing faster than the public sector, and that teachers in independent schools do not have the same income ceilings as their colleagues in the government sector, the decision to exclude those independent school teachers is probably fiscally irresponsible as well. Assuming that the goal of TMB is to grow membership and profits, why on earth would you deliberately alienate the fastest growing, most cashed-up segment of your potential membership?

Given the past track record of TMB in addressing this issue I am not holding out much expectation of my concerns being addressed, but I cannot leave my feelings unspoken. As you can probably tell, I feel quite strongly about it, and while ever this inequity of the Common Bond remains I will find it difficult to see Teachers Mutual Bank as the fair, egalitarian and principled organisation I used to once think it was.

Going Back To Basics Is Still Going Backwards

chris-pyneI’m not a big fan of Christopher Pyne. As far as I’m concerned, our new federal education minister has shown himself to be inept and completely out of his depth in his current portfolio. He continually implies that Australia’s teachers are less competent than they should be and that our students are not receiving a proper education.

The amount of political mudslinging every time he opens his mouth is just an embarrassment to any thinking person. In his interviews with that other redneck extremist lunatic, Alan Jones on 2GB, the two of them make complete asses of themselves as they bask in idiotic, inflammatory statements about Australian teachers.

The thing that really ticks me off about Pyne is this phrase he continually uses… “back to basics”.  In adopting this phrase he poo-poos “modern teaching methods” which he considers airy-fairy, and talks about how we need to get back to a direct instruction model where students listen to a teacher talk at them. He dismisses the idea of child-centred learning, and wants a return to a more didactic teacher-centric model.  And don’t even get me started on his ignorant judeo-Christian-centric view of history.

Christopher Pyne is a fool who knows nothing about teaching or learning.

When I hear a politician say they want to go “back to basics”, It usually means one of three things…

1. They actually have no idea how to move forward.  By going back to a previously known state, something that used to work in the past, they attempt to absolve themselves of the responsibility to move forward. If it worked for your parents, it must work for you too, right? By going “back to the basics”, whatever the hell that actually means, they don’t need to think of what a better future might look like. They don’t tackle the hard task of building a better tomorrow, they just hope that whatever we did yesterday will still work tomorrow.

2. They have no idea that the world has changed. Anyone who claims that going back to the way something worked in the past is a sustainable solution, simply does not understand how much the world has changed. By going “back to basics”, we go back to a pre-Internet, pre-hyperconnected, pre-Google, pre-Globalised world that looks very little like the world our children are actually growing up in today.

3. They have no idea what our kids actually need. Yes, literacy and numeracy are important, but it would be foolish to assume that the concept of “literacy” as it existed in the 1960s is sufficient in the 2010s. Of course we should produce students who can read and write and know their times tables (and we do, although to hear the way these politicians belittle educators you would think that not a single student can read).  There are other forms of literacy that matter as well, and I don’t want to see Australia go down the same path as our American friends who seem to have a school system which values the Three Rs and not much else, and in fact the insane focus on “the basics” has come at the detriment of so much else about learning that makes us human.

Pyne wants to quote PISA figures and all sorts of other statistics that are supposed to “prove” that Australian kids are going backwards. Continually improving our students ability to read, write and add up is important, but so is their ability to sing and dance and play and paint and draw. We need well rounded students who enjoy learning, who  discover what it means to be truly literate, not just with words and numbers but in all senses of the word.

Make no mistake, no matter how you look at it, going “back to basics” is still going backwards. Any fool can see that. Any fool except Christopher Pyne it seems.